Trends and Transformations: An Analytical Study of Enrollment Decline in Pakistan

By – Maryam Naveed

 

Fazaia Bilquis College of Education for Women, PAF Nur khan.

In the recent years, Pakistan has experienced a drastic shift in its academia sectors that despite the hike in the young population, the enrollment ratio has been stagnated and even declined across various levels of academic education. This drastic decline is not just witnessed in higher education, but it’s also apparent in the early childhood education which is ultimately raising serious concerns about the future of human capital development in the country. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2024–25, the enrollment in universities and higher education institutions fell sharply by 13% in fiscal year (FY) 2023, reducing the total enrolled student population to approximately 1.94 million even though there are 269 universities operating nationwide. This prominent fall in youth’s enrollment in universities clearly signals towards the deep-rooted challenges present in the education system that surpasses mere demographic shifts.

Similarly, foundational stages of education that refers to the critical initial years (usually ages 3-8) that focus on literacy, numeracy and holistic development are also under sprain. The same Economic Survey reported that early childhood school enrollment (ages three to five) declined by 3.3%, dropping from about 11.7 million to 11.6 million children between 2023 and 2024, reflecting a contraction in access to retention even at the entry points of formal schooling. This decline in early academic upbringing carries downstream consequences, impacting the progress of learners in secondary and tertiary education while also creating barriers in for enrollment in higher education institutes. Census-linked surveys show that about 28% of children aged 5–16 which is roughly 20 million children are not enrolled in schools, with a smaller share dropping out after initial enrollment, if done.

If we talk about the causing factors, One of the most significant factor that is contributing to declining enrollment are the economic hardships and under funding. Pakistan’s education sector is constantly under financed, with government spending on education stuck at around 0.8% of national GDP, a level far below international benchmarks for sustainable educational development (Ahmad, 2025). This level of investment lead to dilapidated infrastructure, scarce learning environments, and insufficient recruitment of teachers as well as their training. Higher education institutions in Pakistan have faced severe funding restraints as budget falls occasionally and limit their ability to maintain, expand and also introduce new programs. Experts note that the Higher Education Commission’s (HEC) self-financing policy, which requires universities to generate a larger portion of their own revenue, has forced many institutions to raise tuition fees and also lead to the reduction of scholarships. Ultimately, this financial weight falls directly on students and their families which in turn lead to discouraging enrollment, this has been vividly seen in firstly the lower and then the middle income groups from whom raise in prices in prohibitive and who hardly make both ends meet.

Another key driver of enrollment decline is gender. There is an evident gender gap hindering every child’s equal access to education. Male enrollment generally exceeds women. In Pakistan, male literacy rates are reported at around 68-73%, whereas female literacy lies in between 50-60%.Enrollment of students in higher secondary level is around 60 and at primary level is around 57%. At university level, around 60% students are male. Although many students gets forms and submit them, a few pay the admission fee and join the institute. However, many students drop out as as well afterwards due to difficulties they face in paying for their education. For many females, pursuing education in Pakistan is considered to be unnecessary and hence they are ultimately deprived from it. Unfortunately, this carries on as inter-generational transmission through generations reflecting social barriers for girls forcing them to prioritize household responsibilities and can be now seen as widely deeply rooted. These disparities are reinforced by geographic inequities; rural and less developed provinces such as Sindh and Baluchistan report significantly higher out-of-school rates compared to regions like Punjab, indicating uneven access to quality education and opportunities.

In addition to formal schooling, alternative education pathways have been expanding, leading towards shifting preferences among learners. Enrollment is shifting highly towards non-formal education (NFE) centers which provide flexible and community-based learning opportunities alongside practicality. This shows the enrollment growth in such institutes, with reports showing a 20% increase hence redirection of young enthusiastic learners in NFE to over 1.29 million and the number of NFE centers to around 35,500. Moreover, the employment rate for females in these institution is upto 80% alongside around 60% female students. The majority of these centers are known to be found in Punjab, Sindh, KP and Baluchistan hence aiming to provide a learners a do over to learn and become literate.

Over and above that, the increase in usage of social media is also a major factor. The Pakistan Telecommunication Authority claimed a 15% rise in internet usage, whereas telecom companies reported a 25% increase in data usage. Furthermore, In Pakistan, where strict lockdowns were imposed during the peak of the pandemic, social media usage surged as individuals sought ways to adapt to remote living. Platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube became essential for maintaining social relationships, accessing news, and finding entertainment during isolation (Hamza et al. 2025). With schools and workplaces shifting online, social media played a crucial role in virtual learning and remote work, helping students and professionals stay engaged.

Another major factor is that of social media and its effects on today’s youngsters. After the pandemic in 2019, there was an excessive increase in the use of smart phones hence elevating screen times. Educational institutes tried to fulfill their roles by using online means to continue academic journey but, unfortunately it’s had the opposite effect. Students started investing much of their time on social platforms like TikTok, Instagram, Snap chat and more, getting inspired by the influencers, you tubers. The COVID-19 pandemic, which emerged in late 2019, significantly reshaped social media engagement worldwide. As governments enforced lockdowns and social distancing measures to contain the virus, digital platforms quickly became the primary means for people to stay connected, informed, and entertained .This has mislead a wide range of youngsters to making life through social media instead of going for through the continuous cycle of formal education.

The implications of declining enrollment are extensive. From a human capital perspective, decreased access to schooling especially among girls and rural populations of Pakistan, has led to long-term threats to socioeconomic development. There are few youngsters who now attain secondary and tertiary qualifications. Furthermore, the labor force may lack the skills that necessary and important for innovation and competitiveness in which today’s world is in. Additionally, due to stark inequities to access education flares up the cycles of poverty further and hence limits social mobility and increases regional and gender-based disparities.

A multidimensional policy is required to address these issues. Increasing public investment in education to approach global standards is crucial to improving infrastructure and teacher capacity. Curriculum revisions that correspond with the market demand may be useful to change the perceived value of education in our country and will hence encourage enrollment and active participation. Finally, deliberate efforts to close gender and regional gaps, especially through initiatives like safe transportation, gender inclusive schools, and rural school development programs, are essential to ensure equitable access to education for all children in Pakistan.

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